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EBRD says Central Asia's economic growth to remain relatively strong

13 November 2013

[Abstract. Full report here]


The economic growth in Central Asia is expected to remain relatively strong owing to a number of large natural resource projects.

The news was announced on November 11 by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report.

According to the report, much of the effect of new natural resource deposits in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan will be reflected in output growth in the first two to three quarters of 2014, while in the Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan growth is expected to decelerate somewhat in the light of weaker demand and remittances flows from Russia.

Certain delays notwithstanding, large natural resource exploration projects remain broadly on track throughout the region, and are expected to make a sizable contribution to growth over the medium term, the EBRD said.

"Uzbekistan's GDP growth remained strong at 8.2 percent in 2012 and 8 percent in the first half of 2013. It was driven by a combination of increases in public spending, diversification of gas export routes and accommodating monetary conditions," the report said.

The EBRD believes that growth in Uzbekistan is expected to slow down somewhat to around 7.7 percent in 2013.

The bank forecasts that real GDP in 2014 will increase by 5.5 percent in Kazakhstan, 5.5 percent in Kyrgyzstan, 5 percent in Tajikistan, 10 percent in Turkmenistan and 7 percent in Uzbekistan.